Prediction Error

I saw a reel the other day … one that stuck, that resonated. She was asking if you’ve ever had an overwhelming desire to quit your job, start over or move countries … um … yes … all the time … well apparently this is prediction error.  

(I’m grossly oversimplifying this - the full instagram reel is here).

When you google this - the simplified explanation is “error = actual - predicted.”

Note - this is when I wish high school science had been way more interesting … as a child who had to take math OR science through high school - I chose math. Not because I found it more interesting … but my brain had business leanings and this was the logical path. As an adult who finds neuroscience both interesting and sometimes written in tongues - understanding science would be helpful. 

Obviously I researched this … The idea is fascinating.  Especially so - because I feel this - a lot. The concept of outgrowing environments, the idea that the self, the brain - already recognizes a different version of your life … I realize there are likely scientific terms to explain this, but as we’ve established - I’m not a scientist. 

To be clear … I’m not fleeing the country, quitting my job, or starting over … I just have the overwhelming urge to with relative frequency. Luckily - I can be surprisingly pragmatic. 

What was interesting about the reel … It wasn’t new information … It was merely framed in a unique way … If there is a gap between the expected outcome and the actual result … Why? What’s the lesson? What do I need/want to adjust for?

This is one of the key ways in which the brain processes data conflicts and how we adapt … the link between cognitive dissonance (the discomfort experienced when holding conflicting beliefs and/or behaviours. The theory connecting these suggests one is the emotional connection between self belief and reality. (Thank you Google).

The brain is endlessly fascinating.

Essentially what the reel was saying … Prediction error is the signal that tells the brain an update is required. If the error is large enough ... it travels up to our pre-frontal cortex and triggers cognitive dissonance … which in turn wires a new habit or belief. 

Fun fact - both are needed in the hardwiring process.

In my non-science brain … It seems I’ve stumbled upon a content creator who uses science to explain what I’m doing and why.

Which I love!!

Admittedly … It took some research and writing this to dissect her 30 or 60 second reel … but critical thinking is a good thing.  At a gut level … there was something that stuck … but was it valid? Or was she using big words that made her sound valid?  

I struggle with that a lot. I mean … I enjoy a good doom scroll … enjoy cute memes … interesting recipes and my horoscope … getting information or education … that takes work!  Don’t misunderstand … I’m all for learning … for some content, I need to validate, research … I don’t know the people sharing, I don’t understand or know their credentials … so I look for source material that verifies or contradicts what they are saying … Truth be told, I often look for multiple, reliable sources.  That can be exhausting. Sometimes it’s just easier to  believe. Sighs. Then that part of my brain that enjoys critical thought … It kicks in at the most inopportune times … Asking questions I didn’t look up in the moment, ruining all the random belief in something I just wanted to believe was true because I read it on the internet.

Sighs.

Would I trade critical thinking?  No.  I enjoy a functional brain. I enjoy curiosity. While I’m capable of delusional faith … I’m also not going to blindly believe random strangers when it comes to key areas of my life - my health, my finances, my long-term success. 

Don’t misunderstand … I like this creator … Her content resonates, challenges me to think, to act … I like that she explains things in ways that feel different, in ways that create light bulb moments. 

I like her even more after the rabbit holes her reel sent me down. Why? Because scrolling is usually passive … I share some, save others … but the ones that force me to think or reconsider and look at creating action or change within my life, my environment … Those creators I adore! While I may not love every post, agree with all their content, I will have a soft spot for them for triggering action … Even if it’s a rabbit hole of research … So I understand why the content resonates and I know what or how to create appropriate action.  

If my current environment feels like prediction error … Something needs to change … I don’t want to downgrade my self-image to increase my comfort … I worked too long and too hard to get here.  So … upgrades.  Sounds easy. Ha! I know it’s not - although it’s not necessarily hard … It’s about consistency … Compounding interest - the math had to be justified! 

I catch myself … using the stairs more - not every time, yet! … Making conscious choices about where my money goes, on who it is spent, where I spend my time etc. 

I can tweak the behaviour - focus on better connecting the emotional pieces of the life I’m building with the actions I’m taking. Reinforce the rewiring with what apparently my brain uses already - my emotional response. 

Like I said … Not new information … but put in a way that my brain understands.  The word understands feels inaccurate … maybe packaged in a way that forced me to think, to question, to digest … that feels more accurate. 

That urge for change - having a name - made a difference.

Prediction error … Who doesn’t love a basic formula?